敏感性性分析例：有一个生产城市用小型电动汽车的投资方案，用于确定性分析的现金流量表如下，所采用的数据是根据对未来最可能出现的情况估算的。由于对未来影响经济环境的某些因素把握不大，投资额、经营成本和销售收入均有可能在±20%的范围内变化。设基准收益率为11%，不考虑所得得税，试就以上三个不确定性因素做敏感性分析。年份012345678910投资0销售收入198001980019800198001980019800198001980019800经营成本152001520015200152001520015200152001520015200残值净现金流量00460046004600460046004600460046004600解：设投资为K，年销售收入为B，年经营成本为C，期末资产的残值L为L。投资的变化率为x，经营成本的变化率为y，年销售收入的变化率为z,则有NPV=-15000+NPV(10%,0,4600,4600,……,6600)IRR=IRR({-15000,0,4600,4600,……,6600})具体求解如下：K=15000x=0%i0=10%C=15200y=0%NPV=11396.45B=19800z=0%IRR=22.03%残值2000年份012345678910投资15000销售收入198001980019800198001980019800198001980019800经营成本152001520015200152001520015200152001520015200残值净现金流量-150000460046004600460046004600460046004600累计净现值-15000.00-15000.00-11198.35-7742.30-4600.44-1744.20852.383212.915358.847309.699083.19NPV=11396.45IRR=22%下面就三个不确定性因素做敏感性分析单因素敏感性分析xNPVIRRyNPVIRRzNPVIRR0%11396.4522.03%0%11396.4522.03%0%11396.4522.03%-20%14396.4527.73%-20%28377.8035.90%-20%-10723.99-0.07-15%13646.4526.12%-15%24132.4632.72%-15%-5193.880.03-10%12896.4524.64%-10%19887.1229.37%-10%336.230.10-5%12146.4523.28%-5%15641.7925.82%-5%5866.340.170%11396.4522.03%0%11396.4522.03%0%11396.450.225%10646.4520.86%5%7151.1117.92%5%16926.560.2710%9896.4519.77%10%2905.7813.41%10%22456.670.3115%9146.4518.76%15%-1339.568.32%15%27986.780.3620%8396.4517.81%20%-5584.902.34%20%33516.890.40两因素敏感性分析11396.45-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-20%31377.8027132.4622887.1218641.7914396.4510151.115905.781660.44-2584.90-15%30627.8026382.4622137.1217891.7913646.459401.115155.78910.44-3334.90-10%29877.8025632.4621387.1217141.7912896.458651.114405.78160.44-4084.90-5%29127.8024882.4620637.1216391.7912146.457901.113655.78-589.56-4834.900%28377.8024132.4619887.1215641.7911396.457151.112905.78-1339.56-5584.905%27627.8023382.4619137.1214891.7910646.456401.112155.78-2089.56-6334.9010%26877.8022632.4618387.1214141.799896.455651.111405.78-2839.56-7084.9015%26127.8021882.4617637.1213391.799146.454901.11655.78-3589.56-7834.9020%25377.8021132.4616887.1212641.798