人民币实际汇率波动对中美贸易收支影响的实证分析的中期报告摘要：本文以1980年至2018年期间的中国和美国贸易数据为基础，使用Paneldata模型进行实证分析，研究了人民币实际汇率对中美贸易收支的影响。研究结论表明，人民币实际汇率对中美贸易收支有显著的影响，在短期内，人民币实际汇率的贬值可以提高中国对美出口的收益；在长期内，人民币实际汇率的升值可能会降低中国对美出口的收益。此外，出口因素、进口因素、汇率波动率和经济周期等因素也对中美贸易收支产生了显著的影响。关键词：人民币实际汇率，中美贸易收支，PanelData模型，影响因素Abstract:BasedonthetradedatabetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesfrom1980to2018,thispaperusesthePaneldatamodeltoempiricallyanalyzetheimpactoftherealexchangerateofRMBonthetradebalancebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.TheresearchresultsshowthattherealexchangerateofRMBhasasignificantimpactonthetradebalancebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.Intheshortterm,thedepreciationoftherealexchangerateofRMBcanincreaseChina'sexportearningstotheUnitedStates;inthelongterm,theappreciationoftherealexchangerateofRMBmayreduceChina'sexportearningstotheUnitedStates.Inaddition,exportfactors,importfactors,exchangeratevolatility,andeconomiccyclesalsohaveasignificantimpactonthetradebalancebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.Keywords:realexchangerateofRMB,tradebalancebetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates,PanelDatamodel,influencingfactors.