PAGE\*MERGEFORMAT14广州大学松田学院计量经济学课程论文班级：____14金融四班________________姓名：____蒋晶玲__________________学号：____1401010421_______________目录TOC\o"1-3"\h\z\uHYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611941"摘要PAGEREF_Toc470611941\h2HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611942"一、问题的提出PAGEREF_Toc470611942\h3HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611943"（一）居民旅游观念的变化PAGEREF_Toc470611943\h4HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611944"（二）旅游人数PAGEREF_Toc470611944\h4HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611945"（三）交通情况PAGEREF_Toc470611945\h4HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611946"二、变量的选取和分析PAGEREF_Toc470611946\h5HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611947"（一）影响因素分析PAGEREF_Toc470611947\h5HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611948"1.国内生产总值（GDP）PAGEREF_Toc470611948\h5HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611949"2.人口PAGEREF_Toc470611949\h5HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611950"（二）指标选择PAGEREF_Toc470611950\h5HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611951"（三）模型选择PAGEREF_Toc470611951\h5HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611952"三、样本数据采集PAGEREF_Toc470611952\h6HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611953"四、模型的估计与调整PAGEREF_Toc470611953\h6HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611954"（一）建立模立PAGEREF_Toc470611954\h6HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611955"(1)拟合优度检验PAGEREF_Toc470611955\h7HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611956"(2)F检验PAGEREF_Toc470611956\h7HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611957"（3）t检验PAGEREF_Toc470611957\h7HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611958"（二）自相关检验PAGEREF_Toc470611958\h8HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611959"（1）.图示检验法PAGEREF_Toc470611959\h8HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611960"（2）.DW检验法PAGEREF_Toc470611960\h8HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611961"（3)BG检验PAGEREF_Toc470611961\h8HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611962"（三）异方差的检验PAGEREF_Toc470611962\h9HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611963"（1）、残差图分析PAGEREF_Toc470611963\h9HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611964"（2）、散点图分析PAGEREF_Toc470611964\h9HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611965"五、结论与对策PAGEREF_Toc470611965\h10HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611966"(一)经济持续增长将继续推动旅游发展PAGEREF_Toc470611966\h10HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611967"（二）居民旅游观念的变化国内旅游业发展与社会经济的发展密切相关PAGEREF_Toc470611967\h11HYPERLINK\l"_Toc470611968"（三）加强旅游综