生态与农村环境学报2010,26(增刊1):34-40JournalofEcologyandRuralEnvironment长江下游水源地突发性水污染事故预警应急系统研究112a2b庄巍,李维新,周静,赵爽(1环境保护部南京环境科学研究所,江苏南京210042;2河海大学a.环境学院;b.水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098)摘要:针对长江下游主要水源地特点及水污染事故特征,以长江江苏段为例,建立整体一维、分段二维的水量水质预测模型,构建适用于该地区的水源地风险预警模型,实现对于固定源、移动源等水污染事故风险过程的动态模拟及风险预警;将水质预测模型、风险预警模型、地理信息系统、远程控制及自动化等技术有机耦合,研发水源地突发性水污染事故预警应急系统,可准确直观地表现水污染事故的影响范围及发展趋势,为水源地水污染事故风险预警应急工作决策提供科学依据。关键词:水质模型;风险预警;地理信息系统;长江下游;江苏段中图分类号:X507文献标志码:A文章编号:1673-4831(2010)S1-0034-07EarlyWarningSystemforSuddenWaterPollutionIncidentsinWaterSourceAreasinLowerReachesoftheYangtzeRiver.ZHUANGWei1,LIWeixin1,ZHOUJing2a,ZHAOShuang2b(1.NanjingInstituteofEnvironmentalSciences,MinistryofEnvironmentalProtection,Nanjing210042,China;2.a.CollegeofEnvironment;b.StateKeyLaboratoryofHydrologyWaterResourcesandHydraulicEngineering,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098,China)Abstract:BasedonthefeaturesofthemajorwatersourceareasinthelowerreachesoftheChangjiangRiverandcharacteristicsofwaterpollutionaccidents,awaterflowandqualitypredictionmode,lonedimensionalforthewholeandtwodimensionalforsubsection,wasestablished,usingtheJiangsusectionoftheChangjiangRiverasacaseforstudy,andfurtheron,ariskearlywarningmodelwasbuiltupforwatersourceareasinthatregion,thusrealizingdynamicsimulationofprocessesandearlywarningofwaterpollutionrisksoffixedandmovingsources.Bycombiningthewaterqualitypredictionmode,lriskearlywarningmode,lGIS,remotecontrollingandautomationtechnology,awatersourcesuddenwaterpollutionincidentearlywarningsystemwasdeveloped.Thesystemmayaccuratelyandvisuallydisplayscopesandtrendsoftheimpactsofwaterpollutionaccidentsandprovidescientificbasisfordecisionmakinginriskearlywarningandaddressingwaterpollutionaccidentsinwatersourceareas.Keywords:waterqualitymode;lriskearlywarning;geographicinformationsystem;lowerreachesoftheChangjiangRiver;Jiangsusection长江下游地区突发性水污染事故频发,对周边水源安全构成了潜在的风险威胁。笔者以长江江苏水环境的影响和破坏巨大,对于沿线水源地等敏感段为例,针对长江下游水源地的风险特征,对水质预水体更是会带来灾难性后果,而长江下游地区供水测模型、风险判