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外文原文ThegreenbarriertofreetradeC.P.ChandrasekharJayatiGhoshAstheMarch31deadlineforcompletingthe"modalities"stageoftheproposednewroundofnegotiationsonglobalagriculturaltradenears,hopesofanagreementareincreasinglywaning.InthiseditionofMacroscan,C.P.ChandrasekharandJayatiGhoshexaminethefactorsandtheplayersconstrainingtherealisationofsuchanagreement.ATTHEENDofthelatestroundofmeetingsoftheagriculturalnegotiationscommitteeoftheWTO,theoptimismthatnegotiatorswouldmeettheMarch31deadlineforworkingoutnumericaltargets,formulasandother"modalities"throughwhichcountriescanframetheirliberalisationcommitmentsinanewfull-fledgedroundoftradenegotiationshasalmostdisappeared.Thattargetwasimportantfortworeasons.First,itisnowbecomingclear,thatevenmorethanwastrueduringtheUruguayRound,forginganagreementintheagriculturalareaisboundtoproveextremelydifficult.Progressintheagriculturalnegotiationswaskeytopersuadingtheunconvincedthatanew`DohaRound'oftradenegotiationsisusefulandfeasible.Second,theDohadeclarationmadeagriculturalnegotiationsonepartofa`singleundertaking'tobecompletedbyJanuary1,2005.Thatis,inatake`all-or-nothing'scheme,countrieshadtoarriveat,andbeboundby,agreementsinallareasinwhichnegotiationsweretobeinitiatedinthenewround.Thismeansthatifagreementisnotworkedoutwithregardtoagriculture,therewouldbenochangeinthemultilateraltraderegimegoverningindustry,servicesorrelatedareasandnoprogressinnewareas,suchascompetitionpolicy,foreigninvestmentandpublicprocurement,allofwhicharecrucialtotheeconomicagendaofthedevelopedcountries.Thefactorsmakingagriculturethestickingpointonthisoccasionarenumerous.AsinthelastRound,thereislittleagreementamongthedevelopedcountriesthemselvesontheappropriateshapeoftheglobalagriculturaltraderegime.TherearesubstantialdifferencesintheagendaoftheUS,theEUandthedevelopedcountrieswithintheCairnsgroupofagriculturalexporters.Whentherichandthepowerfuldisagree,aglobalconsensusisnoteasytocomeby.Butthatisnotall.Evenifanagreementisstitchedupbetweentherichnations,throughm
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