（财务知识）中川铁路经济效益分析I摘要城际铁路项目的建设是为了缓解城市群之间的运输压力，加快形成覆盖全国主要城市群的铁路运输网络。城际铁路在满足高效率、大运量的客运需求的同时，由于其建设投资巨大，资金回收期长，如何使新建城际铁路实现可持续发展，使铁路运营企业能更好的服务城际旅客，对城际铁路进行科学、合理的经济效益评价直接影响到该线路的投资决策与建设运营。本文以兰州中川城际铁路的建设为背景，分析预测该项目的各项运输指标，并对其进行经济效益分析。首先，通过问卷调查以及搜集历年旅客运输统计资料等方式，分析了兰州到中川出行旅客的特点，从缓解旅客运输压力等方面分析了中川铁路对兰州市旅客运输的重要性，并运用四阶段法对其进行客运量预测；其次，对中川城际铁路开行方案进行了简单预测；最后，分别采用“作业成本法”和“实算法”对中川城际铁路进行运营成本及运营收入的测算，分析中川城际铁路的经济效益。本文对中川城际铁路的经济分析，对该项目的建设及未来运营组织具有一定的指导意义。关键词：城际铁路；经济效益；四阶段法；成本作业法IIAbstractTheconstructionofintercityrailwayprojectistoeasethetransportationpressurebetweenurbantheformationofthenationalmajorurbanrailtransportnetwork,Intercityrailwayinmeetthehighefficiency,largevolumeofpassengerdemandatthesametime,duetothehugeconstructioninvestment,paybackperiodlong,howtomakethenewintercityrailwaytoachievesustainabledevelopment,therailwayoperatingpaniescanbetterserveintercitypassenger,intercityrailwayforscientificandreasonableevaluationofeconomicbenefitdirectlyaffectthelineofinvestmentdecisionandconstructionandoperation.Inthispaper,withthebackgroundoftheconstructionoftheLanzhou—Zhongchuanintercityrailway,analysisandpredictionofthetransportindexesoftheproject,andtheeconomicbenefitisalso,throughthequestionnaireandcollectspassengertransportationstatisticaldataovertheyears,analyzestheLanzhoutoZhongchuanpassengers,thepassengervolumeforecastusingthefour-stagemethod,fromtheaspectsofalleviatepassengertransportpressureanalysisoftheLanzhou—ZhongchuanintercityrailwayofLanzhoucitypassengertransport;secondly,toLanzhou—Zhongchuanintercityrailwaypassengertrainplanmadeasimpleforecast;thenuse"Activity-BasedCosting"and"real"algorithmestimatesofoperatingcostsandoperatingineofLanzhou—Zhongchuanintercityrailway.AnalysiseconomicbenefitsofLanzhou—Zhongchaunintercityrailway.ThispaperanalyzestheLanzhou—ZhongchuanIntercityRailwayeconomy,hasacertainsignificancetoknowtheproject'sconstructionandfutureoperationorganization.Keywords:Intercityrai