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The10TrendsYouHavetoWatchEricBeinhocker&ianDavis(2009)HarvardBusinessReviewResourcesfeelingthestrain:Waterresourcesareunderincreasingstrainfrompopulationgrowthindustrialization,andclimatechange.By2030,40%ofglobalGDPand85%oftheworld’spopulationwillbeinregionswherewaterdemandexceedssupply.Strategy:planforafutureofresourcepriceincreases,volatility,andevenshortages.Globalizationunderfire:Althoughgrowthintheglobalizationofgoodsandservicesmaystallforaperiodbecauseinternationaltradehasdeclinedalongwithdemand,itisunlikelytoreverse.Strategy:stress-testtheirbusinessmodelsunderdifferentglobalizationscenarios.Trustinbusinessrunningout:Therelationshipbetweenbusinessandcivilsocietywasshowingsignsofstrainevenbeforethecrisis.Sincetherecessionbegan,therehasbeenaprecipitousdeclineintrust.Strategy:imperativeformostcompaniesistodowhattheycantoregainthetrustofstakeholdersandtomoreeffectivelymanagerelationshipswiththem.Andincreaseshareholdervalue.Abiggerroleforgovernment:Increasedgovernmentinvolvementinbusinessisoneofthemoststrikingfeaturesofthecrisis.Policymakershaveenactedmassivestimuluspackages,proppedupfalteringcompanies,andpledgedregulatoryreforms.Strategy:helpshape-andpreparetocompeteunder-newregulatoryregimes.Recognizethatthepublicsectorwillgrowinimportanceasamajorcustomerformanyindustriesbecauseofrapidincreasesinspending.Managementasascience-:Thecrisisexposedthelimitationsofcertaintools.Inparticular,theworldsawthefollyofthereliancebybanks,insurancecompanies,andothersonfinancialmodelsthatassumedeconomicrationality,linearity,equilibrium,andbell-curvedistributions.Astherecessionunfolded,itbecameclearthatthemodelshadfailedbadly.Strategy:thetoolsneedtoincorporatemore-realisticvisionsofhumanbehavior-mostlikelybudrawingonbehavioraleconomics,becomingmoredynamicandintegratingrealworldfeedbackandthenbusinessexecutivesneedtogetbetteratusingthem.ShiftingConsumptionPatterns:The1980sand1990swerepeakconsumptionyearsforthenow-retiringbabyboomers,whosespendingspreewasfinancedbyamountainofdebt.Be
