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Chapter14AfterstudyingChapter14,youshouldbeableto:RiskandManagerial(Real)OptionsinCapitalBudgetingAnIllustrationofTotalRisk(DiscreteDistribution)ProbabilityDistributionofYear1CashFlowsCF1P1(CF1)(P1)$-3,000.05$-1501,000.252505,000.402,0009,000.252,25013,000.05650S=1.00CF1=$5,000(CF1)(P1)(CF1-CF1)2(P1)$-150(-3,000-5,000)2(.05)250(1,000-5,000)2(.25)2,000(5,000-5,000)2(.40)2,250(9,000-5,000)2(.25)650(13,000-5,000)2(.05)$5,000VarianceofYear1CashFlows(ProposalA)SummaryofProposalAAnIllustrationofTotalRisk(DiscreteDistribution)ProbabilityDistributionofYear1CashFlowsExpectedValueofYear1CashFlows(ProposalB)(CF1)(P1)(CF1-CF1)2(P1)$-50(-1,000-5,000)2(.05)500(2,000-5,000)2(.25)2,000(5,000-5,000)2(.40)2,000(8,000-5,000)2(.25)550(11,000-5,000)2(.05)$5,000VarianceofYear1CashFlows(ProposalB)SummaryofProposalBTotalProjectRiskProbabilityTreeApproachProbabilityTreeApproachProbabilityTreeApproachProbabilityTreeApproachJointProbabilities[P(1,2)]ProjectNPVBasedonProbabilityTreeUsageNPVforEachCash-FlowStreamat5%Risk-FreeRateNPVontheCalculatorCalculatingtheExpectedNetPresentValue(NPV)CalculatingtheVarianceoftheNetPresentValueSummaryoftheDecisionTreeAnalysisSimulationApproachSimulationApproachSimulationApproachSimulationApproachCombiningprojectsinthismannerreducesthefirmriskduetodiversification.NPVP=S(NPVj)NPVPistheexpectedportfolioNPV,NPVjistheexpectedNPVofthejthNPVthatthefirmundertakes,misthetotalnumberofprojectsinthefirmportfolio.sP=SSsjksjkisthecovariancebetweenpossibleNPVsforprojectsjandk,sjk=sjskrjk.sjisthestandarddeviationofprojectj,skisthestandarddeviationofprojectk,rjkisthecorrelationcoefficientbetweenprojectsjandk.E:ExistingProjects8CombinationsEE+1E+1+2E+2E+1+3E+3E+2+3E+1+2+3A,B,andCaredominatingcombinationsfromtheeightpossible.Managerial(Real)OptionsManagerial(Real)OptionsPreviousExamplewithProjectAbandonmentProjectAbandonmentProjectAbandonmentProjectAbandonmentSummaryoftheAdditionoftheAbandonmen
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