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NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIESLOSTDECADEINTRANSLATION:DIDTHEUSLEARNFROMJAPAN’SPOST-BUBBLEMISTAKES?JamesHarriganKennethKuttnerWorkingPaper10938http://www.nber.org/papers/w10938NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH1050MassachusettsAvenueCambridge,MA02138November2004Thispaperhasbenefitedfromthecommentsofthepre-conferenceparticipantsinNewYorkinAugust2003,fromthedetailedsuggestionsofHughPatrick,andfromcolleaguesattheFederalReserveBankofNewYork.ChristinaMarshwasourresearchassistant.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYork,theFederalReserveSystem,ortheNBER.Theviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.©2004byJamesHarriganandKennethKuttner.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including©notice,isgiventothesource.LostDecadeinTranslation:DidtheUSLearnfromJapan’sPost-BubbleMistakes?JamesHarriganandKennethKuttnerNBERWorkingPaperNo.10938November2004JELNo.E32,E58,E65ABSTRACTIn1991,theJapaneseeconomyendedahistoricexpansionandenteredaperiodofstagnationthathasyettoabate.Nineyearslater,theUSeconomyendedasimilarlyhistoricexpansion.Thereweremanysimilaritiesinthetwocountries'expansions:assetpricebubbles,arealinvestmentboom,easymonetarypolicy,andimprovementsingovernmentfinances.Inthewakeofburstingbubbles,theJapanesebankingsystemwasinsolventandmonetarypolicywastootight,problemsnotevidentintheUSpost-bubbleperiod.ButtheUShasworsefiscalandcurrentaccountimbalancesthanJapanhadatthesamestageinthepost-bubbleera.JamesHarriganInternationalResearchFunctionFederalReserveBank-NewYork33LibertyStreetNewYork,NY10045andNBERjames.harrigan@ny.frb.orgKennethKuttnerOberlinCollegeEconomicsDepartment10NorthProfessorStreet,RiceHallOberlin,OH44074andNBERkenneth.kuttner@oberlin.edu1.IntroductionIn1991,theJapaneseeconomyendedahistoricex
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