3/18/2010经济发展与健康人力资本刘国恩北京大学光华管理学院Email:ggliu@unc.edu北大光华《宏观经济与健康》讲座，2010年3月18日1健康与经济的关系2经济增长理论：基本框架经济学理论:生产函数Y=Y(L,K,T)生产投入要素物质资本人力资本科学技术人力资本理论：L=L(H,E)教育人力资本：Welldocumented健康人力资本：Tobedocumented313/18/2010Age-earningsProfilesUniversityEarningsgraduate($)Indirectcosts(foregoneearnings)SecondaryschoolgraduateBenefitsofcompletinguniversityaftersecondary(incrementalearnings)Age0182265(years)DirectCosts($)DirectcostsSource:WangR(2008)EuropeanestimatesReturnstoschoolinginEurope,menandwomen(yearclosestto1995)Ireland(94)UK(94-96)Germany(West)(95)Portugal(94)(95)Switzerland(95)WomenFinland(93)MenGreece(94)Spain(94)France(95)Italy(95)Austria(95)Netherlands(96)NorwayDenmark(95)Sweden(91)0.020.040.060.080.10.120.14RateofReturnSource:WangR(2008)RatesofReturnstoEducationinChina14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%初中高中6.00%大专4.00%大本2.00%0.00%1991199520002010-3-18Source:WangR(2008)623/18/2010健康人力资本的作用机制ProductivityEffect:DirectLaborSupply-QuantityLaborSupply–QualityandEfficiencyIncentiveEffect:IndirectIndividualinvestmentBusinessinvestment7ProductivityEffect生产力工作时间疾病误工H1生命早逝度量指标：LostWorkingDaysQALY,DALYH2工作效率物理效率学习效率L365days8IncentiveEffectIndividualInvestmentEducationalbehavior(keydriverforgrowth)SavingbehaviorSocialbehaviorBusinessinvestmentEmploymentOn-jobtrainingLesscostlymedicalinsurance933/18/2010实证：ProductivityEffectMeadianWealthby1984HealthStatus140000120000100000800006000040000J.Smith200000198419891994ExcellentVerygoodGoodPoor10Source:JSmith,HealthyBodiesandThickWallets,JEP,1999新发疾病的经济影响27,00022,00017,00012,0007,0002,000-3,000WealthOOPExpTotalHC-8,000-13,000-18,000MildOnsetSevereOnset11健康对财富的影响途径2,0001,5001,0005000-500OOP(W2-1)OOP(W3-2)Earnings(W3-1)-1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-3,000SevereMild1243/18