运营管理class4-post.ppt
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运营管理class4-post.ppt

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OperationsManagementThedesignandmanagementofsystemstomakeproducts,provideservicesanddeliverthemtotheenduser.Class4:ProjectManagementLearningObjectivesExamplesExample:Airbus380ProjectTimelineExample:Airbus380GeographicalLogisticsSequenceforA380Example:A380Example:Airbus380Example:Boeing787Example:Boeing787Boeing787Whystudyprojectmanagement?WhatdoesProjectManagementinvolve?NetworkRepresentationsofProjectsExample:StartingTimHorton’sFranchiseSoftwareMicrosoftProjectBasicQuestionsthatWeFaceGanttChartCriticalPathDiagramCriticalPathIdentifyingtheCriticalPathCriticalPathDiagramWhyisthecriticalpathimportant?Comparison:CriticalPathandBottleneckEarlyStart(Finish)vs.LateStart(Finish)EarlyStart/Finishvs.LateStart/FinishAnotherExampleExample:CriticalPathDiagramAddingCostInformationAddingCostInformationTime-CostTrade-offA.CrashCost:$30/dayCrashLimit:0DaysOtherProjectManagementTools?EstimatingNewCompletionTimeandBudgetElementsofTimeandCostAnalysisTime-CostAnalysis:ExampleClass4:ForecastingLearningObjectivesWhatisForecasting?WhatisForecasting?StrategicForecasting(2010-2030)StrategicForecastingStrategicForecasting(2009-2028)StrategicForecasting(2009-2028)StrategicForecasting(2009-2028)AirbusA380AirbusA380Boeing787(Dreamliner)54Forecastvs.ProductionA380(Production)Boeing787(Production)ForecastingisHardSomeFamousForecastsOperationsandInformation@Wal-MartForecastingisVitalForecastinginthiscourseForecastfor2011?Howdoweforecast?Example1Howdoweforecast?QualitativeMethodsHowdoweforecast?Example2Howdoweforecast?QuantitativeMethodsTimeSeriesAnalysisATypicalTime-SeriesofPastDemandsSimpleMovingAverage:ExampleSimpleMovingAverage:ExamplePlottingtheMovingAveragesWhatisaGoodForecast?CalculatingtheMADWhichforecasthasthelowerMAD?Howmanyperiodsshouldbeused?OtherWaysofIntroducingTrendExponentialSmoothing7879Onceyouhaveaforecast,howdoyouusethisinformation?ForecastingTips