IMPACT OF RMB APPRECIATION ON TRADE AND LABOR MARK.doc
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IMPACT OF RMB APPRECIATION ON TRADE AND LABOR MARK.doc

IMPACTOFRMBAPPRECIATIONONTRADEANDLABORMARKETSOFCHINAANDTHEUSA.doc

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China&WorldEconomy/19-39,Vol.19,No.2,2011江苏科技大学经济管理学院毕业论文(设计)©2011TheAuthorsChina&WorldEconomy©2011InstituteofWorldEconomicsandPolitics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesPAGE\*MERGEFORMAT1ImpactofRMBAppreciationonTradeandLaborMarketsofChinaandtheUSA:AMulti-countryComparativeGeneralEquilibriumModelXinLi,DianqingXuAbstractSincetherecenteconomiccrisis,theundervaluationofChina,sexchangeratehasbeenafocusinthedebateontheglobalpolicymix.Usinganon-competitiveinput-outputtable,weestablishacomparative-staticgeneralequilibriummodeltosimulatetheimpactofrealexchangeratechangesonSino-UStradeandlabormarkets.Thesimulationshowsthattheimpactsofa10-percentRMBrevaluationonthetradesurplusofChinaandthelabormarketoftheUSAaremoremodestthanisgenerallyperceived,andthenegativeimpactontheoutputofthenon-processingindustryinChinaismoresignificantthanthatontheprocessingindustry.TheSino-UStradeimbalancewillcontinuetodeteriorate,China'snon-processingtradesurpluswilldeclineandtheprocessingtradewillincrease,withthecombinedeffectbeingsmallFortheUSA,labor-intensivegoodsimportedfromChinawillshifttodifferentAsiancountriesinsteadoftransferringbacktotheUSmarket.ThesimulationresultsindicatethattheimpactsofanRMBrevaluationonbothChineseandUSlabormarketswouldbelimited.Keywords:comparativegeneralequilibriummodel,exchangerate,internationaltrade,labormarketJELcodes:F16,F17,J21XinLin,DianqingXu/19—39,Vol.19,No.2'2011江苏科技大学经济管理学院毕业论文(设计)©2011TheAuthorsChina&WorldEconomy©2011InstituteofWorldEconomicsandPolitics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesPAGE\*MERGEFORMAT524XinLin,DianqingXu/19-39,Vol.19,No.2,2011©2011TheAuthorsChina&WorldEconomy©2011InstituteofWorldEconomicsandPolitics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesIntroductionSino-USeconomictradehasexpandedsubstantiallyoverthepastthreedecades.BilateraltradebetweenthetwonationsrosefromUS$5bnin1980toUS$409bnin2008(Morrison,2010).ChinahasbecometheUSA'ssecondlargesttradingpartner,itsthirdlargestexportmarketanditsbiggestsourceofimports.Approxima