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???????????BrinkmanshipTheCubanMissileCrisis?14?Chapter14?????????????????BrinkmanshipasaStrategicMove:AquickReminder?????????????????????????????????Athreatisaresponserule,andthethreatenedactioninflictsacostonboththeplayermakingthethreatandtheplayerwhoseactionthethreatisintendedtoinfluence.????????????????????????However,ifthethreatsucceedsinitspurpose,thisactionisnotactuallycarriedout.????????????????????????Thereforethereisnoapparentupperlimittothecostofthethreatenedaction.Slide21?????????????????BrinkmanshipasaStrategicMove:AquickReminder???????——??????????????????????????——???????????????????Buttheriskoferrors–thatis,theriskthatthethreatmayfailtoachieveitspurposeorthatthethreatenedactionmayoccurbyaccident–forcesstrategisttousetheminimalthreatthatachieveitspurpose.??????????????????????????????????????Ifasmallerthreatisnotnaturallyavailable,alargethreatcanbescaleddownbymakingitsfulfillmentprobabilistic.Slide3?????????????????BrinkmanshipasaStrategicMove:AquickReminder????????????????????????????????Thereforeyoumustarrangeinadvancetoletthingsgetoutofyourcontroltosomeextent.?????????????????????Brinkmanshipisthecreationanddeploymentofsuchaprobabilisticthreat.Slide42?????????????????BrinkmanshipasaStrategicMove:AquickReminder????????????????Brinkmanshipisasubtleanddangerousstrategy.?????????????——?????????——??????????????Manyconflictsinbusinessandpersonalinteractions–suchasstrikesandbreakupsofrelationships–areexamplesofbrinkmanshipgonewrong.Slide5???????????BrinkmanshipandtheCubanMissileCrisis????1962??????????????????????????WewillusetheCubanMissileCrisisof1962asanextendedcasestudytoexplicatetheconcept.??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Insuchtheory-basedcasestudies,factualdetailsofaparticularcasearemorecloselyintegratedwithgame-theoreticanalysistoachieveafullerunderstandingofwhathashappenedandwhy.Slide63????Outline????Abriefnarrationofevents*???????????ASimplegame-theoreticexplanation*????????Accountingforadditionalcomplexities*????Ap