Understanding Key Economic Indicator.docx
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Understanding Key Economic Indicator.docx

UnderstandingKeyEconomicIndicator.docx

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UnderstandingKeyEconomicIndicatorUnderstandingKeyEconomicIndicatorsByDesmondLumInthesetimeswhenmarketforcesappearincreasinglycomplicatedandmorevolatile,itisallthemoreimportanttounderstandtheprofessionaljargonandterminologyinthemarketplaceinordertobeabletobettermakeourinvestmentandbusinessdecisions.Understandingkey-economicindicatorswillassistinthedecisionmakingprocess,providingasnapshotofthecurrentsituationandaninsightintothefuture.Eacheconomicindicatortellsussomethingabouttheeconomyorinflation.GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)isprobablythemostimportantreportasitisthewholeframeworkwhereothereconomicindicatorsfallunder.UsingthetextbookformulawhereGrossNationalProduct=Consumption+Investment+GovernmentSpending+Exports-Imports,someoftheindicatorswillfallintotheabove-mentionedcategorye.g.retailsalesfigureswillfallunderConsumption,constructionspendingunderinvestment,tonameafew.Therearealsoindicatorsthatarebroaderthattellusabouttheeconomyitselfratherthanthecomponent,e.g.employmentfigures,leadingindicators,moneysupplyfigures(M3).Inflationfigures,ProducePriceIndex(PPI)andtheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)will,inshort,informusofthechangesinwholesaleprices,costofconsumer(retail)goodsandservicesrespectively.Anindicatorthatisusefulmustbeaccurate,timelyandreliable.Itdependsentirelyontheintegrityofthenationalstatisticalsystemresponsible.Itisvitaltoknowtheaccuratecomponentsofanindicator.Wehavetobemindfulofthelimitationofthesestatisticalfigurestoo.Someindicatorscanbehistoricorextremelyvolatile,andthereforetheirvaluearereduced.Itisbettertocomparethemostrecentdatawithearliermonths,ortakeamovingaverageforthepast3,6or12monthstosmooththedata.Itwilltellusiftherehasbeenasignificantchangeintrendandwhetheranewdirectionisunderway.Timelinessofanindicatorisalsosignificant.Althoughthereportedfiguresareimportant,itiscrucialtorecognisethatmarketsreacttothevariancetotheconsensusforecastthantotheabsolutechangeintheindicator.Marketsdonotlikesurprisesandcanbefrustratedwithvolatilityuponsubsequentrevisionstothenumbe