Chapter6LearningObjectivesLearningObjectives(cont.)Importanceofdecision-makingDecisionsintheManagementFunctionsDecision-MakingProcessacomprehensive,8-stepprocessStep1-IdentifyingaProblemproblem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairsmustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoactmanagerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasresourcesnecessarytoactDecision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteriadecisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecisionStep3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriamustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecisionStep4-DevelopingAlternativeslisttheviablealternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthemStep5-AnalyzingAlternativeseachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaAssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteriaEvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeightsDecisionMaking(cont.)DecisionasaProcess:IncrementalDecisionProcessModelContinuedcontinuedTheManagerAsDecisionMakerAssumptionsOfRationality有限理性TheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)TheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)ProgrammedversusnonprogrammeddecisionTypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)ExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLiftTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)PayoffMatrixRegretMatrixTheManagerAsDecisionMaker(cont.)EscalationofCommitmentTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)Decision-MakingStyles常见的认知陷阱锚定（定准，支架）陷阱现状陷阱现状陷阱舒服的现状赖床与温水青蛙——积重难返我们心灵深处保护自己的想法张居正：“一条鞭法”——拿鞭子鞭打自己商鞅变法与五马分尸沉没成本陷阱主要现象：问题债权发生时，大多数以追加贷款的形式解决问题不太采取撤收资金的方法受到沉淀成本的影响，银行家的判断经常出现失败解决方法：在任何问题出现前，选出新的银行家来承担工作必须选出对这个决策没有利害关系的银行家可靠证据陷阱从两方面影响你看到了什么？表述陷阱从得与失表述问题从不同的参考点构思问题卡内基模型下的决策过程比较群体和个人决策:三个臭皮匠顶的了诸葛亮吗？GroupVersusIndividualDecisionMaking群体决策的优缺点民主与独裁Therationalversusboundedrationalitymodel群体决策的两种方式两个决策例子—猪湾入侵两个决策例子—古巴导弹危机两个决策例子—为何效果不同？有效制定决策的三个要素—3C一.建设性冲突一．建设性冲突一.建设性冲突：两种方法二.考虑/体谅二.考虑/体谅三.终止三.终止三.终止TheManagerAsDecisionMaker(cont.)WhatIsIntuition?GarbageCanModel:野渡无人舟