卢女窕》*SHANDONGUNIVERSITYOFTECHNOLOGY毕业设计说明书多级供应链的状态空间模型与仿真设计学院：电气与电子工程学邕专业：自动化学生姓名：学号：指导教师：中文摘要摘要随着社会不断的进步和发展，21世纪的市场竞争不再是企业之间的竞争，而是供应链与供应链之间的竞争，而信息传递是影响供应链中各企业竞争能力的重要因素。在信息传递中往往会出现不同程度的信息扭曲现象，产生“牛鞭效应"，从而造成运输和库存成本的增加。为此，我们必需采取措施来减弱“牛鞭效应”。由于改变相关参数、实现信息共享能够降低订货量的大幅变动，因此本文研究的重点是通过SIMULINK仿真分析系统模型,研究预测系数。、时间延迟Z、实际库存量与期望库存量的偏差调整率。及实际在途库存量与期望在途库存量的偏差调整率0对牛鞭效应的影响，同时对比在信息共享和信息不共享的条件下牛鞭效应的变化，得出本设计的最终结论。本文首先介绍了国内外对供应链管理研究的现状，然后着重介绍了牛鞭效应的概念、结构及特征，分析了牛鞭效应的成因及危害。本文创新之处在于采用简单指数平滑法预测需求，并且根据现实意义，在订货的输出渠道上增加了一个非线性环节消除非现实意义中的负需求。关键词：供应链，牛鞭效应，信息共享，仿真AbstractAbstractWiththecontinuoussocialprogressanddevelopment,marketcompetitioninthe21stcenturyisnolongeracompetitionbetweentheenterprises,butthecompetitionbetweenthesupplychainandsupplychain,informationtransferisanimportantfactoroftheimpactofsupplychaininthecompetitivenessofenterprises.Differentdegreesofdistortionsinthetransmissionofinformationisoften,resultinginthe"bullwhipeffect",resultinginanincreaseintransportationandinventorycosts.Tothisend,wemusttakemeasurestoweaken"bullwhipeffect”.Changetherelevantparameters,toachieveinformationsharingcanreducethequantitiesofthesubstantialchanges,thereforefocusofthisstudyistheSIMULINKsimulationanalysisofthesystemmodel,thepredictioncoefficients,timedelays,physicalinventoryandexpectinventoryamountofdeviationtoadjusttherateandactualin-transitinventoryandexpectationsofthedeviationofin-transitinventoryadjustmentrateonthebullwhipeffect,simultaneouscontrastininformationsharingandinformationsharedundertheconditionsofthebullwhipeffect,drawthefinalconclusionofthisdesign.Thispaperfirstintroducesthestatusofdomesticandinternationalsupplychainmanagementresearch,andthenfocusesontheconcept,structureandcharacteristicsofthebullwhipeffect,analysisofthecausesofthebullwhipeffectandhazards.Theinnovationliesinthisarticleusingthesimpleexponentialsmoothingtoforecastdemand,andpracticalsignificance,theincreaseintheoutputchannelsontheorderofanon-linearaspectsoftheeliminationofnegativedemandinthenon-practi