中国人口预测摘要：众所周知，人口问题涉及人口质量和人口结构等因素，是一个复杂的系统工程。稳定的人口HYPERLINK"http://www.studa.net/fazhan/"发展直接关系到我国社会、HYPERLINK"http://www.studa.net/Economic/"经济的可持续发展。如何从数量上准确的预测人口数量以及各种人口指标，对我国制定与社会经济发展相协调的健康人口发展计划有着决定性的意义。近年来我国的人口发展出现了许多新的特点，例如人口总量平稳增长；流动人口继续增加；人口过快增长的势头得到有效控制；人口素质进一步提高；老龄化进程加快；少数民族人口有较快增长；家庭户规模继续缩小；城镇化水平发展较快等，这些都影响着我国人口的增长。本文根据2001年到2010年全国人口数量的统计数据，通过合理的假设条件以及MATLAB对数据的处理，首先建立两个数学模型：阻滞增长模型（Logistic）、灰色预测GM(1.1)模型；其次通过所建立的两个模型，分析人口发展中男、女人口数量及人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率等内在因素的变化HYPERLINK"http://www.studa.net/"规律，预测中国未来十年内人口的变化规律，最后对所建模型的优缺点进行了客观的评价。关键词：人口发展；阻滞增长模型;灰色预测；人口预测China'spopulationforecastAbstract：Asisknowntoall,thepopulationprobleminvolvespopulationqualityandpopulationstructurefactors,isacomplicatedsystemengineering.Stabilityofthepopulationdevelopmentdirectlyrelatestothesocialandeconomicsustainabledevelopment.Howtoaccuratelypredictthenumberofpopulationandvariouspopulationindexofourcountry,socialandeconomicdevelopmentforcoordinateddevelopmentofpopulationhealthplanhasadecisivesignificance.ThepopulationdevelopmentinChinainrecentyearstherehasbeenalotofnewfeatures,suchasthetotalpopulationstablegrowth;Continuetoincreasethefloatingpopulation;Therapidpopulationgrowthmomentumiseffectivelycontrolled;Furtherimprovepopulationquality;Agingprocessaccelerated;Thereisafastgrowingminoritypopulation;Householdsizetocomedown;Thefastdevelopmentoftheurbanizationlevelandsoon,theseaffectedourcountrypopulationgrowth.Thisarticle2001in2010toin,accordingtothenationalpopulationnumberofstatisticaldata,throughthereasonableassumptionsofMATLABanddataprocessing,firstsetuptwomathematicalmodel:Logisticmodel,greyforecastingmodelGM(1.1);Secondlytheestablishedbytwomodel,analyzesthepopulationdevelopmentofmaleandfemalepopulationquantityandbirthrateandmortality,andnaturalgrowthrateandotherinternalfactorsofvariation,predictChinaforthenext10yearsofpopulationchangerule,finallytothemodeltheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofobjectiveevaluation.Keywords：Populationdevelopment;Logisticmodel;Greyf