EuropeandtheUnitedStateseconomymaybewillenter“theendgame”欧美经济棋局或将进入终盘Inchess,theendgameisthepointatwhichtherearearelativelylimitednumberofpiecesontheboard.Manychessanalystsdisagreeastowhenexactlytheendgamebegins,buttheyallagreethatwhentheendgamebegins,strategyismuchdifferentthanthemiddlegame.Infact,overtimetheworld'sbestchessplayershavealwaysexcelledattheendgameandutilizedaconsistentstrategy.在象棋对弈中，所谓“终盘”就是棋局进入尾声，棋盘上的棋子数量已相对较少之。很多象棋分析人士对于究竟何时开始才算进入终盘意见并不统一，但他们都认同一点，进入终盘后，对弈策略与中局时大相径庭。事实上，全球顶尖的象棋棋手总是能在终盘时拿出优异的表现，并采用前后一贯的策略。Yesterdaywasoneofthosestockmarketdaysthatcertainlymadeafewinvestorswonderwhethertheglobaleconomicgrowthendgameisactuallyhereyet,orclose.ThesnapbackinU.S.equitiesdidn'tnecessarilysurpriseusbutobviouslycharacterizedthealmostbi-polarsentimentthatcurrentlyexistsinglobalequities.Onedaybadnewsmatters,thenextdaygoodnewsmattersmore.Theglobaleconomicgrowthslowingendgameishere,thenitisn't.本周二股市的表现便让一些投资者怀疑全球经济增长是否已经、或者即将进入终盘阶段。美国股市的强势反弹并不令人意外，明显带有近期全球股市信心两极摇摆的特征。前一天，坏消息占上风，后一天，好消息又主导全局。全球经济增速放缓已进入终盘，然后又发现其实还没有。MeanwhileinSpainovernightwedidgetmoreevidenceofthedebtendgame.ThenationthatwillcontinuetobethepressurepointinEuropeansovereigndebtissuesthisyear,reportedthatnon-performingbankloansacceleratedfromDecemberandnowtotal€143.82B,whichisan18-yearhigh.Thebigriskisthatthislevelofnon-performingloansacceleratesdramaticallyaspropertypricescontinuetoreverttothemean.与此同时，周二，西班牙债务问题显现更多终盘迹象。西班牙今年仍然会是欧债危机的承压点。西班牙宣布，自去年12月份起，国内银行不良贷款加速增加，现在总计已经达到1,438.2亿欧元，为18年来的高点。房地产价格继续向长期均值靠拢可能会带来一个巨大的风险,即不良贷款很可能还会继续大幅加速。ThekeyissuewithSpainacceleratingtothedownsidefromadebtperspectiveisthatGermanyisbasicallyonrecordsayingthatSpainistoobigtosave.AndsoisItaly.NotbeingabletosaveeitherItalyorSpainiscertainlyaEuropeansovereigndebtendgamethatisincreasinglyconcerning.Tobefair,though,Spanish10-yearyieldsarenowsolidlybelowthe6%lineat5.78%,whichisapositive,buttheIBEXthismorningisdown-3.2%.TomorrowwegetthelongertermSpanishbondauctionsandthey,too,willlikelybeassuccessfulasanyartificiallycontr